OddsTrader: Path to Next Funding Round

Go / No-Go Gate for Investment by 31 Dec 2025

The Core Objective: Must-Hit Metrics

Blended LTV Target

≥ $70

Combined value of monthly and annual subscribers.

Dec Revenue Run-Rate

$80k-$120k

Demonstrates path to break-even.

The Bottom Line: Decision Gate

GO ✅

Hit $70+ LTV AND $80-120k Dec Run-Rate.

→ Continue Funding

PARTIAL MISS ⚠️

Miss one of the two primary targets (LTV or Run-Rate).

→ Reassess Burn / Optimize Growth Spend / Adjust Strategy

NO-GO ❌

Miss both the $70+ LTV and $80-120k Dec Run-Rate targets.

→ Stop Funding and Sell

Where We Stand Today (June 2025)

Blended LTV (no renewals)

Our current Blended LTV (excluding renewals) shows a gap to the $70 target. The App channel is performing stronger, closer to the goal, indicating a solid user base on mobile.

Monthly Retention Rate

Web retention is currently higher, but both platforms need a significant boost to reach the 70% target, which is a key driver for increasing LTV.

Target: 70%

App (iOS + Android)

Target: 70%

Web (PayPal)

Levers to Reach $70+ LTV

To bridge the gap, we will pull three strategic levers in sequence, prioritizing the fastest and most cost-effective lifts first.

Priority Lever What It Does Expected Lift
1 Retention Push Cuts churn, which directly raises Monthly LTV for both Web & App platforms. +$12-15 to Blended LTV
2 Yearly-First Offer Shifts 45% of new subscribers to the higher-value annual plan. Moves LTV to $70-75
3 Price Test (Monthly $19.99) Provides a direct ARPU bump with minimal churn impact once value is proven. +$6-8 to Blended LTV

Execution Timeline & Milestones

Our execution plan is a phased sprint from August to November, with clear monthly milestones to track progress and iterate if necessary.

1

August – September: Retention Sprint

Goal: Increase overall retention from ~58% to 70%.

Milestone (30 Sep): Retention ≥ 65%. If not, we fast-track onboarding tweaks.

2

October: Yearly Default Roll-out

Launch the "Yearly-First" offer to capitalize on NFL season traffic.

Milestone (31 Oct): Blended LTV ≥ $65. If not, we further optimize the yearly plan's appeal to shift more users to it.

3

November: Price A/B Test

Only execute if Blended LTV is still below $70 after the first two levers.

Milestone (30 Nov): Blended LTV ≥ $70. If not, we trigger the price increase test.